Chances are wave 5 is an ending diagonal

However if we go above 4986 without dipping below 4600/4530 then wave 5 wud hv ended at 4530 itself... n we shud be on the way up.... both the options r open rite now... already on way up... or still to complete ending diagonal.

mostly 5th over...

Mostly 5th of 5th is over....more safety on going above 4820/50/4963.

count of the 5th of 5th

well the count confused me intially... so I was left wondering bout the intensity of the fall the other day... but thats ok... since it was part of the 3rd of 5th of 5th... thats fine....w8ing for mkt to bottom out now...however if 4350/4300 is gone then... it wud be very bearish.

due to confusion in internal count I thought that 4580 wud be the limit... but thats not the case anymore.

here the 1st of the 5th of 5th is very small... n the the 3rd quite long.... but I have noticed this happening quite a few times....also seen that many a time... the 1st is small... the 3 rd extends n so does the 5th..... so am going only by the structure.... n not looking at ratios fo this one.

btw looking at the structure as of now 4500 or so shud be held mostly.lets see...

only once the wave is complete can I be sure of the final structure tho.

Added the fib ratio chart... 4350 is key... coz over there the supports n fib levels r coming together.... so if that goes ... this cud be quite bearish... even if the B wave continues... or else... it may be C wave also... one has to see.

Bullish case may still play out.

Well, we did dip below 4580.... but if we count the 5th of 5th a lil differently, that is still ok, ...now we need that the nifty climbs up above 4820 without dipping below 4560.... in case that happens... the bullish scenario remains open for now... else bearish.

Intraday charts toady show that the upmove is taking place in 5 wave moves adding to chances of a bullish upmove.

Surprising intensity in fall today

Whilst it was expected that we wud go to 4820/40 and then go down to 4640/4600 or so.... the intensity of the fall today was a BIG surprise....I wud be very careful if Nifty went below 4600/4580.... becoz then the whole count wud change n probably revert back to the original count of us being in wave C rather than a continuation of wave B.

On w8 n watch mode for now... If we stay above 4580 and go above 4820 I wud expect the market to go up.... else...it wud become very bearish.

Bearishness wud be confusing becoz(despite bad fundamentals)the positive divergence on RSI n Macd on weekly charts, as well as Macd on Daily.... n hourly charts... does not seem to make a case for such downsides.

Also the downside count of wave C(original) is not perfect anymore...somehow... I still think we oughtta go up n not down... except the intensity in the fall from 4820to 4628 is confusing rite now.

Lets see... 4820/4580 hold the key.

We cud bottom out around 4600

We can bottom out around 4600, becoz the last 5 waves of the 5th of 5th, are getting to be shorter and shorter, the 3rd is shorter than 1st.Also the top of wave 4 of C at 5400 goes above the low of 1 of C at 5328, this implies that the next upside shud ideally be quick and strong.

Add to this that daily n weekly MACD, as also weekly RSI give strong positive divergence , daily RSI mite also follow suit.We are bottoming out for now. Confirmation of going up comes on crossing above 5400.

In an event that we go below 4600/4550.... my view mite change....becoz then the wave count mite change.


We cud have a good upside to 6300 odd also from here.

Roughly wave A(of B) was 4000 points n upside wud be .382 of A or .5 of A or .618 of A or equal to A.(too much that wud be).

Wave A (of B) was due to monetary easing by US.... who I think wud have more arsenal than EU.... so I do not think that the upside now will be equal to A.... wud certainly be less...as of now taking it to be .5 of A wud give us
4600+2000=6600 as a possibilty!!!assuming we bottom out at 4600.

Lets see.