Chances are wave 5 is an ending diagonal

However if we go above 4986 without dipping below 4600/4530 then wave 5 wud hv ended at 4530 itself... n we shud be on the way up.... both the options r open rite now... already on way up... or still to complete ending diagonal.

mostly 5th over...

Mostly 5th of 5th is over....more safety on going above 4820/50/4963.

count of the 5th of 5th

well the count confused me intially... so I was left wondering bout the intensity of the fall the other day... but thats ok... since it was part of the 3rd of 5th of 5th... thats fine....w8ing for mkt to bottom out now...however if 4350/4300 is gone then... it wud be very bearish.

due to confusion in internal count I thought that 4580 wud be the limit... but thats not the case anymore.

here the 1st of the 5th of 5th is very small... n the the 3rd quite long.... but I have noticed this happening quite a few times....also seen that many a time... the 1st is small... the 3 rd extends n so does the 5th..... so am going only by the structure.... n not looking at ratios fo this one.

btw looking at the structure as of now 4500 or so shud be held mostly.lets see...

only once the wave is complete can I be sure of the final structure tho.

Added the fib ratio chart... 4350 is key... coz over there the supports n fib levels r coming together.... so if that goes ... this cud be quite bearish... even if the B wave continues... or else... it may be C wave also... one has to see.

Bullish case may still play out.

Well, we did dip below 4580.... but if we count the 5th of 5th a lil differently, that is still ok, ...now we need that the nifty climbs up above 4820 without dipping below 4560.... in case that happens... the bullish scenario remains open for now... else bearish.

Intraday charts toady show that the upmove is taking place in 5 wave moves adding to chances of a bullish upmove.

Surprising intensity in fall today

Whilst it was expected that we wud go to 4820/40 and then go down to 4640/4600 or so.... the intensity of the fall today was a BIG surprise....I wud be very careful if Nifty went below 4600/4580.... becoz then the whole count wud change n probably revert back to the original count of us being in wave C rather than a continuation of wave B.

On w8 n watch mode for now... If we stay above 4580 and go above 4820 I wud expect the market to go up.... else...it wud become very bearish.

Bearishness wud be confusing becoz(despite bad fundamentals)the positive divergence on RSI n Macd on weekly charts, as well as Macd on Daily.... n hourly charts... does not seem to make a case for such downsides.

Also the downside count of wave C(original) is not perfect anymore...somehow... I still think we oughtta go up n not down... except the intensity in the fall from 4820to 4628 is confusing rite now.

Lets see... 4820/4580 hold the key.

We cud bottom out around 4600

We can bottom out around 4600, becoz the last 5 waves of the 5th of 5th, are getting to be shorter and shorter, the 3rd is shorter than 1st.Also the top of wave 4 of C at 5400 goes above the low of 1 of C at 5328, this implies that the next upside shud ideally be quick and strong.

Add to this that daily n weekly MACD, as also weekly RSI give strong positive divergence , daily RSI mite also follow suit.We are bottoming out for now. Confirmation of going up comes on crossing above 5400.

In an event that we go below 4600/4550.... my view mite change....becoz then the wave count mite change.


We cud have a good upside to 6300 odd also from here.

Roughly wave A(of B) was 4000 points n upside wud be .382 of A or .5 of A or .618 of A or equal to A.(too much that wud be).

Wave A (of B) was due to monetary easing by US.... who I think wud have more arsenal than EU.... so I do not think that the upside now will be equal to A.... wud certainly be less...as of now taking it to be .5 of A wud give us
4600+2000=6600 as a possibilty!!!assuming we bottom out at 4600.

Lets see.

We cud be in an extended B wave

As per the charts above I think my views shud be quite clear....In case we are in an extended B wave ... we shud be bottoming out near 4500/4300 for now.... leading to a good upside which shud cross above 5400 to confirm.... and may well go back to 6300 odd levels...(to be seen)...and which implies we shall have some more QE (money printing).... before things go BUST(whether we like it or not).

A move above 5035 wud b bullish

A move above 5035 wud take us to 5230 or so quite quickly... mebbe more... lets see..A move below 4930/4900 wud mostly take us lower to close the gap b4 we move bac upto 5230 or so.

MEBBE NOT BELOW 4720 FOR NOW

Well we are already in the 3rd wave of the 5th wave... n the 3rd is always quick and ferocious... which means by now we should have been well below 4720, since that is not the case.... the 5th wave mite end up being an ending diagonal wave... so we will have one more up(strong but not above 4950) and then one more down which may go to 4720/4700/4650 or so... need not neccessarily go below 4720.

After that we will have a strong and swift upmove, which may go to 5230 or so... let us see....

towards 4300

Will be going below 4720 and possibly to 4300 levels..... confirmation on going below 4759.Bank nifty has gone below the low made on 26/9/2011 intra day, increasing the chances of Nifty following suit n going below 4720 now :)

4905 is IMPORTANT

A move below 4905 will take us below 4720 levels.

will go up

mkt bound to go up....lets see till where... do not expect above 5230.

5000 SL

If the nifty crosses 4990/5000 levels it may go bac to 5170/5200/5230 levels.... if not we may head below 4720.

It mite go to 5250 or so... b4 it tops out

Nifty crossed above 5143 yesterday showing that the upside is still on...5250 wud offer a strong resistance to the upmove, however, if it crosses that level it could move up, significantly. I am not expecting that as of now.And if it goes below 5019 then the downside would have begun taking us below 4720 as mentioned earlier.

Well mostly upside over ...

Mostly we have completed the rangebound move and we should be going down again.Confirmation on going below 4967/4910.This downside will take us below 4720... mostly somewhere between 4720 n 4300... depending on whether the wave is strong and extends or not.Important supports in this region are: 4630/4580/4500/4480/4450/4370/4300 alomost.

Still expect 4750 or so

Still expect markets to go to 4750 or so... however if we cross 5000 straightaway, then mebbe we will not go to 4750 for now.

A word on the ANNA Movement :

Its the eighth day of Annas fast. Honestly, I do not understand why our government cannot introduce Jan Lok Pal in the Parliament.TEAM ANNA HAS ALWAYS SAID THAT THE PARLIAMENT IS SUPREME AND THEY ONLY WANT THAT THE BILL BE INTRODUCED IN THE PARLIAMENT AND BE DISCUSSED.Its NOT ' My way or the Highway' as things are made out to be.

Also, as of today I believe that anything happening to Anna would create a situation which would be out of anyones control across the country.Is the Goverment not willing to listen to the people of this country??? DO you think if you or I or anyone else would sit on a fast Lakhs of people across this country would support??If they are supporting... can the government not read the will of the people???

May good sense prevail.

A pause shud come next week

I expect the mkts to make a temporary bottom at around 4750/4700 next week.Thereafter expect the markets to be rangebound between 4700 to 5230 for 7-15 days before falling again.I do not expect the gap between 5230-5330 to be filled mostly.This is based on the premise that we are in a huge C wave down..which started in Nov 2010.In case we are not,and the alternate abc-x-abc is happening, things might pan out differently.Lets see what happens.

Upside possibilties negated.

We have gone below both, 5196 and 5177 intraday, so 99% the possibilty of an expanding traingle or any upside above 5740 is negated.The trend clearly remains down and so 4800/4300 should come soon.

Triangle possibilty

This one I had put on my new blog coz the hacker had deleted this one.... so putting it here now.

Todays upmove opens up many possibilities

The upmove today has opened up many possibilities.

There are chances that we are in a triangle ( a huge one from the high of 6338.5 that we made in November 2010).If so, then a bullish possibility exists, which can take the market strongly above 6338.5 after the triangle completes. Completion of the triangle may take some more time.And, once its complete I think, the target of the triangle would be in the range of 6500 to 7300 odd... not sure exactly where right now.

However, if we turn and drop below 5177(and below 5080/5090 to be safe),the bearish scenario exists, which can take us to 4300 or lower.

Lets see where this goes... strong impact on either side is open.

Expect 4300 or so in next few months

Relabelling

The earlier labelling may still hold, but current ongoing wave ii is too big,plus the fact that wave B or X was an abcxabc makes the chances of this labelling being rite much higher.

Yet, both the options remain open.

More Bearish in Medium Term

Breaching 5690, means that we have breached the end of wave 1 which was at 5690,this implies that wave 4 scenario gets cancelled.It implies that wave 3 continues.( n we r in wv 2 of wave 3)Which means, that once this upside ends,(it may be 5800/5900 or wherever it goes, certainly not above 6181)we will have a significant downside, will take a few months,but it will mostly break 4800.Thats why I call it more bearish in medium term.

I have seen similar formation on both, Bank Nifty and Reliance charts, guess wud be present on many other Nifty stocks as well.

A MISTAKE

Well it seems I made a naive mistake of thinking that wave 4 had ended at 5608(which was above top of A leading me to make the mistake) and thinking that wave 5 had started unfolding.It wil be confirmed if the market moves above 5536 in next few days.In fact seeing ICICIBANKs chart gave me the idea of where I was going wrong.Todays upside also confused me, though it seemed to fit a downside count too.( as a part of an extended and complicated wave).I am posting the chart of Icicibank as well as Nifty.Assuming the market moves above 5536, it wil go to 5600/5650( it should not go above 5690 though).

The first chart is that of ICICIBANK and the second one is of Nifty.

WE R POSSIBLY IN WAVE C

Well, for a long time I was w8ing fr a downside... so long that wen it finally cm, I was left wondering, n looking at it as if it was still going to go up... thus, I thot we did another x and then the threes cud possibly mean a triangle...but wen it crossed 5624 on the downside it was no longer a 3 it was clearly a 5...so it is clear that we are in WAVE C ... the much awaited downleg of the bear that unfolded in 2008.

Neely mentions that if the B wave is between 81-100% of wave A(which it is over here)then the downside in wave C shud b 100-138.2% of B.....which wud b going bac to 2539.45 where B started... or more.In any case taking roughly 38% of wave A n substracting from top....which is a min. correction that wud take place(be it a zig zag or flat... here we r in a flat tho... basically taking a very conservative approach) we wud still go to 4800.(4800 shud cm in the next few weeks or so bcoz v r in wave 3... which is normally a lil fast).

Neely also makes a mention of elongated flat where C does more than 138.2% of B as also a truncated C which is less than 100% of B... known as C failure.

Basically 100-138.2% retracement is the most common type of a flat.

Lets see what happens.